Economist and market analyst Dr. Muda Yusuf said the economic fallout from a new 12.5% tariff announced by the United States on imports from Nigeria is likely to be limited. Writing in a weekend statement, Yusuf examined how the measure—introduced under President Donald Trump—could affect Nigeria’s trade, foreign exchange inflows and broader economic conditions.
Three days earlier, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) had imposed the tariff not only on Nigeria but also on several other countries, citing alleged failures to comply with forced labour rules. Yusuf, a former Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), argued that two structural features of Nigeria’s export profile reduce the likelihood that the tariff will meaningfully disrupt Nigeria’s economy.
First, he said Nigeria’s sales to the U.S. are dominated by energy commodities—particularly crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products. Together, these goods make up more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the United States. Yusuf added that these key products have been exempted from the tariff measures, meaning that the largest portion of Nigeria’s shipments to the American market would not be directly affected.
Second, Yusuf noted that the United States is not Nigeria’s most important export destination. He pointed to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade figures, showing total exports of roughly N21.6 trillion. In that period, shipments to the U.S. accounted for 5.56% of the total, while other countries took larger shares: India at 13.09%, France at 9.29%, the Netherlands at 9.22%, and Spain at 7.68%. The U.S. was therefore the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports in the quarter.
Taken together, Yusuf said the country’s export concentration and the limited role of the U.S. in Nigeria’s overall export mix should moderate exposure to the tariff regime. He acknowledged that some non-oil exporters—especially in agriculture and manufacturing—could face weaker competitiveness in the U.S. market, but concluded that the net impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest.
