Nigeria’s headline inflation eased for a second straight month in July 2026, but economists and financial analysts say households are still facing sharply higher food prices and living costs. The Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation slowing to 15.43% from 15.91% in June.
Monthly headline inflation also moderated, coming in at 1.57% in July compared with 1.66% the previous month, a reduction of 0.09 percentage points. On a year-on-year basis, Adamawa posted the highest all-items inflation rate among states at 33.03%, while Nasarawa recorded the lowest at 7.86%.
Quick facts
- Headline inflation fell to 15.43% in July from 15.91% in June.
- Monthly inflation declined to 1.57% from 1.66%.
- Food inflation climbed to 20.31%, its sixth consecutive monthly increase.
- Adamawa had the highest state food inflation at 51.36%; Nasarawa had the lowest at 6.88%.
Food inflation reaches six-month high
Food inflation moved in the opposite direction, rising for a sixth consecutive month to 20.31% from 17.52%. The data point to a substantial increase in food prices over the past half-year.
The statistics agency linked the increase to higher average prices for crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour, among other products.
Adamawa also recorded the country’s highest food inflation rate at 51.36%, while Nasarawa registered the lowest at 6.88%. The figures underline the pressure Nigerians continue to experience in their daily purchases, despite the decline in the overall inflation measure.
Economists and financial analysts who reviewed the July data said the elevated cost of living remains a major burden for most households.
Unegbu disputes official inflation measure
Dr Okechukwu Unegbu, a former president of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, said his assessment placed Nigeria’s headline inflation at between 35% and 40%, well above the official figure.
He argued that the CPI may not fully capture prices paid in markets and at transaction points. In his view, inflation has not meaningfully improved, and a decline in the published rate should be visible in ordinary household spending.
Unegbu said cheaper fuel alone would not demonstrate broad relief if other goods remained expensive. He pointed to the price of oranges as an example: consumers should be able to buy one for N5 rather than N15 if inflation were genuinely easing.
He said he maintains an independent record that continues to show high inflation, putting his estimate as high as 35% to 40%. For him, the official decline “does not make sense” unless the public sees a corresponding improvement in purchasing power.
Prices remain high despite slower increases
Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, a professor of accounting, described the second successive reduction in headline inflation as a possible sign of improving macroeconomic stability. He cautioned, however, that slower inflation should not be confused with a reduction in the cost of living.
Oyedokun said the recent disinflation likely reflects several factors: relative exchange-rate stability, tight monetary policy, easing core inflation and favourable base effects. He said the movement was not mainly the result of lower fuel prices.
Food and other essential household expenses remain expensive, he added, leaving many Nigerians with little immediate benefit from the lower headline rate. In economic terms, prices are increasing at a slower pace rather than declining.
The key test, Oyedokun said, is whether the trend can persist while food prices cool, purchasing power recovers and wages begin to catch up with the already elevated cost of living.
Fiscal action needed, Yusuf says
Dr Muda Yusuf, chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the modest inflation decline suggests that macroeconomic conditions have become more stable, particularly in the foreign-exchange market.
He said a stable exchange rate, which had also appreciated slightly in some instances, had supported investment and investor confidence while reducing expectations of further price increases. However, he stressed that the cost-of-living crisis remains unresolved.
Food, transport, energy and utility costs continue to exert pressure, Yusuf said, with the impact falling most heavily on ordinary Nigerians. As a result, citizens remain vulnerable even as headline inflation decelerates.
Yusuf called for further intervention by both the federal and state governments. He said fiscal measures were needed to address food inflation, transportation costs, energy prices and utility bills, which he described as structural pressures requiring action at both levels of government.
