Arise Television presenter Rufai Oseni said voters across Northern Nigeria are unhappy with President Bola Tinubu’s administration, arguing that the ruling All Progressives Congress could face an unexpected result in the 2027 general election.
Speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show on Monday, Oseni assessed political trends ahead of the vote and cautioned politicians against treating public demonstrations of support as a reliable indicator of electoral backing.
Quick facts
- Oseni said dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration is widespread in Northern Nigeria.
- He argued that cash incentives and crowds chanting politicians’ names may not translate into ballots.
- He cited public-sentiment analysis and his reading of developments in the region.
- He also questioned the commitment of governors who moved to the APC amid turmoil in the Peoples Democratic Party.
Oseni said political figures receiving support from northern residents should not automatically interpret it as broad endorsement of the Federal Government. In his view, money distributed to people and visible expressions of approval could produce a misleading picture before an election.
He said his conclusion was based on his observation of public attitudes and political activity throughout the North. He added that many people in the region were dissatisfied with the current administration.
The broadcaster acknowledged that critics could accuse him of drawing conclusions too broadly. However, he said he was expressing an assessment of the public mood rather than presenting findings from one standalone academic or empirical survey.
Public-sentiment research was among the elements shaping his view, Oseni said. He maintained that such analysis broadly supported his reading of the situation in the North.
He also raised doubts about whether governors who recently entered the APC after the PDP’s internal crisis and fragmentation would be fully loyal to the governing party by 2027.
Some of those governors may have switched because of conditions within their former party rather than because they genuinely preferred the APC, he argued. That could affect their willingness to commit fully to the ruling party’s election effort.
“Do not deceive yourself. Politicians are among the most delusional and optimistic people on earth,” Oseni said.
He said that handing out large amounts of money in the North could lead people to chant a politician’s name and claim that conditions were fine, but warned that “elections will shock you.”
“The North is not happy with this administration,” he said, while recognising that people would challenge the statement as an example of hasty generalisation.
Oseni said his view came from gauging the pulse of northern communities and tracking the direction of events in the region. While conceding that he would be asked for empirical evidence, he said public-sentiment analysis pointed largely in the same direction.
He said the APC must also consider whether it can count on complete loyalty from governors who joined its ranks as the PDP weakened. He described the political alignment as an unusual marriage of convenience.
Those governors came to the APC because their own party had broken apart and undergone major changes, he said. If the PDP had remained stable, Oseni asked, would they have made the move at all?
Whether those defectors can offer full commitment and help the APC dominate the election will be a key issue to watch, he said. “It is going to be interesting.”
