Economists have dismissed Nigeria’s latest gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2026, arguing that the headline growth rate is not showing up in everyday living costs as the cost of living continues to deteriorate. The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy expanded by 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% in the same period a year earlier, a result that would normally signal improving economic momentum.
In the breakdown of economic activity, the services segment accounted for 57.73% of aggregate GDP, followed by agriculture at 23.16% and industry at 19.11%. The report also placed nominal GDP at N110.79 trillion and real GDP at 51.36 trillion, while non-oil activities were said to contribute 96.08% compared with 3.92% from oil. Despite these figures, reactions have intensified among Nigerians and stakeholders as prices for essentials rise and household purchasing power erodes.
Energy costs are one of the clearest pressure points. Cooking gas is reported to be priced above N1,500 per kilogram, fuel is around N1,400 per liter, and diesel is at about N2,000 per liter, with the increase occurring against the backdrop of a Middle East crisis that has been ongoing for nearly three months. Against this backdrop, the former president of the Council of the Chartered Institute of Bankers (CIBN), Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, and the president of the Bank Customers’ Association of Nigeria, Dr. Uju Ogunbunka, said the GDP data does not capture the strain faced by ordinary people.
GDP growth not translating into better living standards
Unegbu said that even though successive GDP figures may be improving on paper, the lived experience of typical Nigerians has not changed for the better. In his view, the reported growth is failing to translate into practical benefits for households, while the rising cost of living continues to worsen despite the stronger headline statistics. He argued that analysts are now looking at ways to recalibrate how GDP is measured so it better reflects conditions on the ground rather than what can be captured through conventional aggregates.
Unegbu pointed to sustained increases in the prices of essential goods and services under the current administration, saying the costs are making day-to-day life harder for average Nigerians. He added that GDP should not be treated as the sole indicator of citizens’ well-being during periods of economic pressure, insisting that growth must be evaluated in relation to market realities and the purchasing power of households.
As evidence, he highlighted the sharp rise in the prices of cooking gas, fuel, and diesel, arguing that these costs show Nigerians are worse off even when GDP growth appears to be improving. He also suggested that GDP calculations should be reshaped to include the experiences of people who rely on daily commerce and labor, including traders, artisans, and students.
“Economists are now trying to recalibrate the GDP to link it to the life of the ordinary person on the street. Despite improvement in Nigeria’s GDP, the life of the ordinary person is not improving,” Unegbu said. He argued that “the GDP has no meaning” in the absence of a connection to how people are actually faring, adding that the prices of many goods and services have continued to rise since the current administration took office, with no meaningful reductions to offset the pressure on households. “The NBS GDP report showed that the economy is growing, but in actual fact, if you go to the market, instead of prices of things changing, things are going up,” he said.
Unegbu stressed that comparing the GDP outcome during a crisis period with citizens’ lived conditions can be misleading. He said the better approach would be to compare or calculate GDP based on how market forces affect people’s day-to-day lives. “For instance, cooking gas is now over N1,500 per kilogram. Fuel and diesel are as high as N1,400 and N2,000 per liter. The GDP improvement has not impacted positively on the life of the common man,” he said. He further argued that when GDP is released, it should not be used simply to measure what the economy is doing in aggregate, but to reflect the realities experienced by those whose lives are directly affected—describing “the life of the schoolboy, the life of the market woman/man, the life of traders, mechanics, and hairdressers.”
“Beautiful statistics” vs. on-the-ground reality
Ogunbunka echoed the criticism, saying the NBS report does not reflect the realities faced by ordinary Nigerians. She said that even with a reported increase in growth, millions of people are still dealing with higher living costs, inflationary pressures, and worsening economic hardship. “Unfortunately, beautiful statistics do not match reality. The NBS report on GDP growth to 3.89 percent leaves more than expected as many battle with the rising cost of living,” she said.
