The World Bank says nearly four in five people in Nigeria are still poor or at risk of slipping back into poverty, even after almost three years of major economic measures launched under President Bola Tinubu. The assessment is set out in a newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria for 2026 to 2032, alongside a Streamlined Country Diagnostic that reviews the country’s economic results and development constraints.
Under the World Bank’s latest figures, 61% of Nigerians live below the poverty line, while 33% are classified as “ultra-poor” and unable to consistently meet basic food needs. The report also estimates that an additional 79% fall into the “near poor” category—those below the poverty line or vulnerable to returning to poverty—highlighting how fragile household conditions remain.
Quick facts
- World Bank estimates 61% of Nigerians live below the poverty line.
- It classifies 33% as ultra-poor and unable to meet minimum food requirements.
- It estimates 79% are poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty.
- It cites economic growth rising from 3.5% (first half of 2024) to 3.9% (first half of 2025).
- It says foreign reserves have climbed above $42 billion.
- It reports fiscal deficits have narrowed and investor confidence has improved.
The World Bank argued that the Tinubu administration’s reforms have delivered some macroeconomic stabilization and helped improve major indicators. It pointed to stronger growth performance, with output growth moving from 3.5% in the first half of 2024 to 3.9% in the comparable period of 2025.
The institution also highlighted improvements in external and public-finance metrics, including foreign reserves rising to more than $42 billion, along with a reduction in fiscal deficits. It added that investor confidence has strengthened, reflecting how markets have responded to the direction of policy.
However, the report cautioned that these gains have not yet translated into noticeable improvements in the everyday living standards of most Nigerians. The World Bank said the benefits of stabilization are still not reaching households at a scale sufficient to change poverty realities.
In its assessment, the World Bank reiterated the combined picture of deprivation and risk: 33% of the population is ultra-poor (defined in terms of age-weighted caloric intake and food insecurity), 61% is below the poverty line, and 79% is near poor—either below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into it. It noted that, even with “bold reforms” aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting the Renewed Hope Agenda, major structural challenges continue to constrain progress.
