Oil prices slipped to their weakest level in almost 15 weeks, even as traders continue to weigh uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Brent crude fell by close to 2.5% on the day, moving to just above $81 a barrel after a 4.75% drop on Monday.
That brings the benchmark to the lowest point since March 4, around the time hostilities involving Iran began to escalate. Still, the move down does not erase the broader premium: Brent remains well above its pre-war reference level of $72.48 per barrel.
What investors are watching
- Brent crude is down nearly 2.5%, at just over $81 per barrel.
- Monday’s decline was about 4.75%.
- The current level is the lowest since March 4.
- Markets are focused on the expected reopening timeline for the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders expect more Middle East supply if the strait resumes operations.
- Concerns remain that normalization could take weeks due to repairs, redeployment and security issues.
Market participants are looking for a potential supply boost from the Middle East if the Strait of Hormuz opens again. Donald Trump said the waterway would restart once the US and Iran complete an initial memorandum of understanding, framing the reopening as a step toward restoring trade flows.
Economists, however, argue that restoring full shipping throughput is unlikely to be immediate. Some production sites may need to restart operations or carry out repairs, while tankers currently placed in less suitable positions will have to be redeployed—delays that can keep physical supply constrained even after political announcements.
Mitsui OSK Lines’ chief executive, the head of the world’s largest tanker operator, added another layer of caution. In comments reported by the Financial Times, he said shipowners would not resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks unless they have evidence that the US-Iran arrangement is “material.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said major shipping firms are effectively demanding more than paperwork. “Leaders of the largest shipping companies seek more than just a formal agreement; they require the clearance of mines and the cessation of all hostilities before tankers carrying cargo worth hundreds of millions of dollars can navigate the Strait without the risk of renewed tensions that could disrupt their journey,” she said.
Brooks’ view implies that even with an agreement to end the US-Iran conflict, the operating environment may remain unstable. She added that Brent is still trading above $80 per barrel, and that it is unlikely to fall below that level until cargo ships can pass through the Strait with successful, repeated voyages.
