Nigerian fuel stakeholders, including Dangote Refinery, depot operators and petroleum product marketers, have agreed to cut premium petrol prices further across the downstream supply chain following talks with the federal government. The decision comes as authorities point to recent declines in global crude benchmarks and seek more “cost-reflective” pricing for consumers.
The federal government pressed for additional reductions through the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, which convened a stakeholders meeting in Abuja. Participants from across the value chain—Dangote Refinery, depot owners and petrol marketers—were brought together to align on pricing tied to prevailing import and refining costs.
Quick facts
- NMDPRA and industry stakeholders agreed on further premium motor spirit price reductions across the value chain.
- NMDPRA said petrol and other petroleum products should fall further as crude oil prices weaken.
- Petrol could drop toward about N1,000 per litre or less if crude prices keep sliding.
- PETROAN’s president said current Abuja-and-surroundings rates of N1,150 and N1,299 per litre could be reduced further.
- Market volatility was highlighted, including a reported $7 rise in crude prices during the meeting.
- Dangote Refinery, retail outlets and others have already lowered prices by at least N100 per litre in the past three weeks.
- NNPC Limited cut its fuel price to N1,150 per litre at the weekend.
- Brent and WTI were reported at $71 and $68 per barrel when the report was filed.
Government officials also tied the push to compliance with cost-reflective pricing levels associated with a Brent reference point of $72 per barrel, amid broader geopolitical risks in the Middle East. NMDPRA’s position is that fuel prices—and other petroleum products—should continue to move downward as input costs ease.
Rabiu Umar, the chief executive of NMDPRA, delivered that message during the Monday meeting on cost-reflective petrol pricing in Abuja. He framed the regulatory push as a response to changing crude price conditions, signalling that reductions should not stop at the most recent adjustments.
After the meeting, the leaders of two major industry groupings confirmed to business media that further decreases are expected nationwide. Billy Gillis-Harry, president of the Petrol Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, and Abubakar Maigandi, president of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, both pointed to additional downward movement in pump prices if crude continues to decline.
They suggested that petrol could fall to roughly N1,000 per litre or even less, depending on how crude prices evolve. Gillis-Harry specifically indicated that Abuja and nearby areas could see rates cut from current levels of N1,150 and N1,299 per litre.
While supporting price reductions, Gillis-Harry cautioned against expectations that marketers can be compelled to sell below cost. He said the industry’s focus is on workable solutions that make fuel more affordable for Nigerians, while ensuring that firms remain able to operate without losses that would disrupt supply.
“You can quote us that PETROAN is willing to work with the NMDPRA, the Federal FCCPC, the minister of petroleum, and all stakeholders to ensure that price reduction is implemented for the benefit of Nigerians,” Gillis-Harry said. He added that running a business at a loss would be unsustainable, warning that the result would be shutdown.
Why prices may not fall as fast as crude
Gillis-Harry said pump pricing does not adjust mechanically each time crude prices move. He argued that the “true” cost-reflective price is set by international conditions and that frequent changes in input dynamics make it hard to announce a single fixed pump figure in advance.
He also said the downstream market does not allow any stakeholder to unilaterally determine prices. Instead, the industry is attempting to reduce costs wherever possible, but all parties must share the burden of adjustments as crude conditions change.
Addressing public assumptions that petrol should immediately drop when crude falls, he rejected a direct one-to-one linkage. “The expectations that are put by Nigerians, ‘Oh, the crude oil has come down to $72, therefore, it must affect us.’ But that is not the reality,” he said.
He pointed to price volatility, noting that even during the meeting, crude prices rose sharply. “Even today, as we are sitting there, we were checking the price volatility. Price increased by $7,” he added, underscoring the difficulty of setting a stable price.
Gillis-Harry further argued that government cannot simply order marketers to sell at a predetermined rate without regard to market realities. “If you tell us to go and sell at this price, then business is closed. How do Nigerians get fuel overnight?” he asked.
In his view, the continued involvement of experienced operators is the best way to protect uninterrupted fuel availability. He said prices are expected to trend downward, but neither the size nor timing of the decline can be guaranteed, given that input costs keep shifting.
He also said refiners, importers and retailers have already started cutting prices where possible. “You can see Dangote has been reducing. Our retail outlets have been reducing. That’s how we continue to go until the price comes down,” he stated.
Gillis-Harry expressed confidence that petrol costs will keep easing, but said the speed of reductions will depend on the prevailing market environment. “It will come down. But how fast and how well is something that we have to keep working on until we get the dynamics of how to make sure that there’s an answer,” he added.
Dangote marketers and depot owners reaffirm further cuts
Maigandi, speaking separately, said Dangote Refinery’s marketers will continue to reduce prices as crude oil prices fall. He also reiterated that the federal government cannot impose fuel pricing on downstream stakeholders in a way that ignores the cost structure of supply operations.
He confirmed the central outcome of the meeting: further decreases in petrol prices. “Fuel prices will go down further; that was our major agreement. Both Dangote Refinery and depot owners assured Nigerians,” he said.
Maigandi went further, saying price reductions could potentially push petrol to levels below N1,000 per litre. He did not provide a timeline, but linked the prospect to continuing crude weakness.
In the most recent market moves, Dangote Refinery, depot owners and filling stations have reportedly reduced pump prices by at least N100 per litre over the last three weeks. As a result, petrol prices in Abuja and surrounding areas have been reported in the range of N1,150 to N1,299 per litre.
At the weekend, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited cut its fuel price to N1,150 per litre. Other stations, including MRS outlets and brands such as AA Rano, Ranoil and NIPCO, were reported to sell petrol between N1,191 and N1,240 per litre.
When the report was filed, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate blends were trading at about $71 and $68 per barrel, respectively, reflecting the downward pressure referenced by regulators and industry participants during the Abuja meeting.
